2015年9月6日 星期日

20美元拍賣談判筆記【談判】

第二周谈判课-中英文笔记

耿刘杨Gloria 2015-08-28 18:20
在自己学习的时候下载了@awryapple同学的流水摘要,然后听课时候按照自己的理解翻译成了中文,这周20美元拍卖的案例非常有意思,但个人理解有限,大家还是要多去听听课啦~
本周目标
get to know the other side-1 了解对方
understand your power-2 了解自己的能力
use psychological tools and avoid traps-3 to 9 利用心理学工具 避免陷阱

1
try to evaluate the quality of the other side
评估对方的质量
conversational intelligence checklist 对话情报清单
a.avoid your favorite topic (otherwise you can speak too much) 避免自己中意的话题
b.ask a lot of questions (people love to talk about themselves) 问许多问题
c. listening is crucial 倾听非常重要


2 using power in negotiations 在谈判中运用能量
A. your source of power? 能量的来源
information 信息
batna 达成谈判协议的最近选择方案

B. the best negotiators 最好的谈判者具有哪些素质:
ask questions and listen 问与听
harvest information 获取信息
to analyze the other side's interest and position 分析对方的利益和立场

C. batna power BATNA的力量
how powerful are they (find out their batna) 对方有多强(找到对方的最佳方案)
weaken their batna (削弱对方的BATNA)
improve your power (your batna) (before the negotiation begins) 增强自己的能量(在谈判开始之前增强自己的BATNA)

D. should your tell the other side what your batna is? 是否要告知对方自己的BATNA
weak batna--no BATNA较弱就不说
strong batna--yes (let they know that you can easily go away to pursue the alternatives) BATNA较强,告知对方,让对方知道我会很容易转向其他选择

E. don't forget coalition 不要忘记联合
3 types of decision making 做出决策
descriptive (normative)--how to do 描述性(规范的)--怎样做
prescriptive (behavioral)--what people do 规定的(行为上的)--做什么
A. psychological tool 心理学工具
a. mythical fixed pie assumption: 虚构蛋糕设想
we assume that our interests are in direct conflict with the interests of the other side 我们假定你的利益与对方产生冲突
which deter us from finding the interests of the other side 什么阻止我们寻找对方的利益
and ignore some mutual interests 并且忽视共同利益
reactive devaluation 反应的货币贬值
Anchoring 定锚 (定一个初始值)
we anchor on an initial value when estimating the value of uncertain objects
在评估不确定对象时要瞄准核心价值
A. in negotiation: who should throw out the first price?
谁应该抛出第一个价格?
not certain with the value 如果对价值不确定
let the other side throw out the price first 先让对方抛出价格
to harvest information 搜寻信息

very confident with the value 如果对价值有足够的自信
you throw out the price first 自己先出价格
try to anchor the other side to your price 让对方固定在价格上

neither side makes an offer or counteroffer 双方都不提出价格
information exchange 交换信息
bring in facts relevant to the value of the object being sold 给出相关信息

Overconfidence 过于自信
we are overconfident that our judgements are correct
我们过于相信我们的判断是正确的
A. in negotiation 过于自信的坏处
people predict the ZOPA (Zone of Potential Agreement) to be too narrow
deter the two sides from reaching agreement
人们狭隘的预估ZOPA(签在的一致协议),阻止我们达到一个共识
B. However overconfidence is not always a problem: 但有时过于自信也有好处
Decision 在决策中
Decision making 做出决策
Realistic 现实性
disconfirming evidence 证明不成立的证据
Decision implementation 实施决策
Optimist 乐观

NOTICE1: 需要注意1
when making decisions, people often search for confirming evidence
but it is very important to search for disconfirming evidence to challenge your believe
在做出决策是,人们总是寻找已经确定的证据,但是同样重要的是去寻找未被证实的证据来挑战你自己的信念
in other words, to think again whether you are correct
也就是说,就算你认为自己是正确的,也要三思

NOTICE2
: 需要注意2
confirming evidence: evidence that (people think) confirms people's believe
确定的证据是人们相信它是正确的(但只是别人相信,没准是不正确的)
Framing 框架
the way that options are framed cause us to be
risk averse (if positive frame) or risk seeking (if negative frame)
列出框架可以让我们:规避风险(积极的框架)
寻找风险(消极的框架)

Eg1
suppose the course decides to give you a gift and you have two options
1 receive 4 envelops, three contain nothing and one contains $1000
2 receive 1 envelop containing $250
most people select 250$
很多人选择250刀
假设这个课程打算给你一个礼物,你有两种选择:
收到四个信封,三个什么都没有,一个里面有1000刀
收到一个信封里面有50刀
suppose the course decide to charge you for joining in and you have two options
1 3/4 of you don't have to pay 1/4 of you have to pay $1000
2 all of you have to pay $250
假设课程要收费,你有两种选择
3/4的机会不用交费,1/4的机会你要叫1000刀
你只要交250刀
most people select option 1
很多人选择1
Eg2

there is no difference between Program A & C or B & D
what makes the different result of the survey is the way it is framed
AC之间,BD之间并没有什么不同,不同的是他们的框架(说法不同)

positive choice 积极的选择
we tend to be risk-averse 规避风险
negative choice 消极的选择
we tend to be risk-seeking 寻找风险
Availability 易得性
we are influenced by information that are most easily available 我们被最容易得到的信息影响
Eg1

most people will answer the motor vehicle accidents
while the truth is
很多人回答的正确答案,也就是交通事故

you were able to retrieve the information about motor vehicle accidents (TV news or frontpage) 你可以检索关于交通事故的信息(通过电视新闻和网站)
while lung cancer usually doesn't appear on the frontpage 但是肺癌并不经常显示在网站
which biased your decision 这让你的判断产生偏见

in negotiation 在你的判断中
Eg2
a friend of the Prof in a aerospace company wanted to sell the government fighter plane 教授的一个在空间站公司工作的朋友想要给政府销售战斗机
his company wanted to prepare videos shwoing what their fighter planes would look like in action 他的公司想要利用视频来展示战斗机工作的样子
the company has two options 公司有两个选择
1 vedio showing the fighter plane flying above the cloud on a beautiful sunny day
with light classical music playing in the background
用视频展示战斗机在云层上飞行,背景是美丽的艳阳天和轻快的经典音乐
2 vedio showing the fighter plane on a dark stormy day with hard rock music playing
视频展示战斗机在飞行,背景是乌黑的风暴天和重金属音乐
the company should go with the 2nd vedio 公司应该选择第二个
which is going to be more memorable in the minds of government decision maker
when they make their decision several months later
这个更容易让政府决策者记住,让他们在几月后做出了决定
Escalation 升级
1)the most successful negotiatiors look at the negotiations from the prospective of the other side
最成功的谈判家以对方的期望角度看待谈判
Eg1
dollar auction 拍卖
拍卖20美元,第一竞拍者会得到20美元,第二竞拍者要交出竞拍的钱数,但是得不到任何东西。许多人会退出竞拍,最终剩下两人。最终以15000成交,一人交15000,一个人交了14500.
what will you bid for a $20? 你将为了什么出价20刀?
suppose A bids $19 B bids $20 假设A出价19,B出价20
A: bids 20 and gets even or lose 19 A:出20,要么扯平,要么损失19
B: bids 21 and lose 1 or lose 21 B:出价21损失1或者21

2)usually people did not think form the prospective of the other sides in the auction
so the price goes much higher than the $20 (escalation)
通常人们在拍卖中对对方的价格不进行预估,所以价格往往会高于20(增加)
phenomenon: competitive arousal 现象:竞争激励
three main causes 三个主要原因
intense rivalry 激烈的竞争
time pressure 时间压力
in the spotlight 位于焦点
Eg2

you should bid nothing because whatever you bid your revenue is of negative expected value
suppose you bid $ xM you can have a deal if the company's value is 0-xM
your expect gain is 1/2*x*3/2=3/4*x under your management
your revenue=3/4*x-x=-1/4*x
你应该不出价,因为无论你投价多少,你的收益都是负的
比如你竞价x,那么这个公司的价值就是0-x,你预期的获利是3/4x,在您的预期之下。你的收益是-1/4x。
Reciprocation, Contrast Principle and Big Picture perspective
往复,对比原理,大图像视角
Reciprocation 往复运动
we feel the need to repay what someone has given us 感觉自己要报答对方的感觉
in negotiation 在谈判中
trading issues (trade off issues that are not very important for the important ones)
贸易问题(权衡问题并不是非常重要的)
contrast principle 对比原理
things look different when presented in sequence than in isolation
事情在连续看的时候与孤立看是不一样的
Big Picture Perspective 大图像视角
don't get lost in details 不要在细节中迷失自己
(always keep in mind the big picture of what you want to achieve)
永远要把宏观图像考虑进去,来达到你的目标
psychological tool/trap checklist 心理学工具/陷阱检查表
mythical fixed pie assumption 虚构蛋糕假定
anchoring 锚定
overconfidence 过于自信
framing 框架
availability 易得性
escalation 扩张
reciprocation 交换
contrast principle 对比原理
big picture prescriptive 大图像规范

此笔记为密歇根大学罗斯商学院的 George Siedel 教授主讲的MOOC
Successful Negotiation: Essential Strategies and Skills 的内容摘要

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